RationalFX: Sterling was the best performing currency last week amongst all majors, benefitting from Retail sales figures coming in 0.3% above expectation and better than expected unemployment data, further increasing the probability of a interest rate hike in December as the Bank of England prepares to tackle rising inflation.
Given the strong data last week the odds of a December rate hike at the Bank of England are above 50% and the odds of a February move meanwhile are set above 100% and these expectations are proving supportive as we are seeing more of an indicator for when to expect the rise.
Austria begins its move into a nationwide lockdown today, this negative news, combined with Germany looking to tighten restrictions have urged investors to move assets into more safe haven currencies which has seen the Dollar benefit. The rise in covid-19 cases could urge the markets to further push back expectations for an ECB rate hike and this is likely to have a negative impact on the Euro.
Sterling did take losses against the dollar but managed to hold against the Euro which was mainly due to the deterioration in the Euro zone, for Sterling to also close around one year highs on Friday is another bullish development and we could possibly see potential further gains in the coming weeks.
Source : ETFWorld.co.uk