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Technical Analysis: S&P GSCI Agriculture : A flag is in formation

1 GRANO

The S&P GSCI Agriculture index replicates the performance of a basket of agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, coffee and cocoa. It has, since June 2010, a  ...


Day By Day – Indipendent Research


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…bullish trend as evidenced by the inclusion of troughs and peaks which are higher and higher and the orientation of the200-day moving average. The recent intermediate consolidation phase should allow the movement to take a break before resuming the bullish path. We’re positive in the medium-term.

14062011 1


Close price 164.44

2 months Opinion BULLISH
2 weeks Opinion POSITIVE

Resistances 109,8 / 113 pts
Supports 101,3 / 97 pts


Anticipation :

In the shorter term, the corrective movement initiated after the failure of the resistance at 113 points was stopped by the major support at 97 points, tested twice. After bouncing off this solid support reinforced by the 200-day moving average the prices are consolidating above the support at 101.30 points in a flag. Triggering (an exit out of the top) this continuation pattern should lead to a bullish acceleration in the direction of the previous peaks. 

We are positive in the short-term and look for a rallying towards the resistance at 109.80 points.

We set the invalidation threshold for this opinion slightly below the support at 101.30 points.

Traker’s Name Leverage Expense ratio
AMUNDI ETF COMMODITIES SP GSCI AGRICULTURE x1 0,3%
RBS Market Access RICI Agriculture Index ETF x1 0,7%

Follow-up Analysys: Our DBD Tracker dated 23/05/2011 recommended the sale of the European STOXX 600 index. Since then, prices are approaching our second intermediate target at 267.50 points, or a performance of 4%.


* A leverage of 1 means that the ETF/Tracker has the same performance as the underlying index. A leverage of 2 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will have twice the performance of the underlying index. A leverage of -1 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will perform opposite that of the index: it will rise while the index falls, and vice versa.

 


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Source: ETFWorld – Day By Day – Indipendent Research

 

 

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