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Technical Analysis: S&P GSCI Non-Energy : technical rebound

Technical Commentary : The S&P GSCI Non-Energy Index is a collection of Commodities (metals, precious metals and agricultural ....


Day By Day – Indipendent Research


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…Commodities), excluding those in the “Energy” sector (Oil and Derivatives, Natural Gas). It presents a bullish dynamic, evidenced by a succession of troughs and peaks which are higher and higher, and supported by the 200-day moving average. However, there is a loss of strength in the movement with the approach towards the key resistance dating from July 2008 at 3300; an incentive to maintain a degree of caution regarding the configuration of the Index in the medium-term. We are neutral and not anticipating a new peak by summer.

16052011


Close price 2824.46

2 months Opinion NEUTRAL
2 weeks Opinion POSITIVE

Resistances 2980 / 3140 pts
Supports 2830 / 2550 pts


Anticipation :
In the shorter-term, following several unsuccessful tests of the resistance at 3140 points, prices retreated towards the level at 2830  points. This threshold is important: the former resistance now becomes a support, which has already been tested twice; it is the 38% retracement of the previous impulse, soon reinforced by the 200-day moving average. Contact with this solid support should thus lead to a technical rebound.

We are positive in the short-term and envision the rallying towards the resistance at 3140 points with an intermediate target of 2980 points.

We set the invalidation threshold for this positive scenario slightly below the support at 2830 points.

Traker’s Name Leverage Expense ratio
AMUNDI ETF COMMODITIES SP GSCI NON ENERGY x1 0,30%
EasyETF SP GSNE (EUR) x1 0,30%
Lyxor ETF Commodities CRB Non-Energy x1 0,35%

Follow-up Analysys: Our DBD Tracker dated 18/04/2011 recommended the purchase of the Stoxx Europe 600 Food & Beverage Index. Since then, the final target at 366.65 points was reached and overflowed, a performance of 4.9%.


* A leverage of 1 means that the ETF/Tracker has the same performance as the underlying index. A leverage of 2 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will have twice the performance of the underlying index. A leverage of -1 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will perform opposite that of the index: it will rise while the index falls, and vice versa.

 


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Source: ETFWorld – Day By Day – Indipendent Research

 

 

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