Weekly Currency Thought: US, Good momentum and optimism returning


As Obama and Romney make their closing remarks ahead of the US election, the world’s largest economy received a boost from American employers adding 171,000 jobs in October. The latest US non‐farm payrolls were much better than expected and came in well above consensus (125k) forecasts…….


            Sign up for our weekly Newsletter and receive the latest ETF and ETC news.
            Click here to register for your free copy

             This stronger than expected report plus net revisions to the previous two monthly reports is consistent with stronger labour market momentum heading into Q4. We would not be surprised to see some temporary volatility in upcoming jobless claims and payrolls data as a result of the devastatine Hurricane Sandy.

            However, we do not see the momentum in hiring and decline in the unemployment rate in recent months as changing the calculus for the Fed at this stage.

            The Fed desires both a substantial and sustainable improvement in labor market conditions and is likely to read recent payroll growth as a positive step in the right direction, but just one step in a longer journey.

            The issue of the looming “fiscal cliff”, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts which could knock as much as $500 billion (~3%) off the economy, still needs to be addressed, although this will become a post election agenda. For now, EURUSD remains in a trading range.

            This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to any other person without our permission and any use, distribution or duplication by anyone other than the recipient.  We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness.  Any investment, products, services or strategies may not be suitable for all clients.  Opinions, estimates, investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.  This material should not be regarded as research or a J.P. Morgan research report nor as including sufficient information to support an investment  decision and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.  The investment strategies and views expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan including research. 
            The information provided herein is for general informational purposes only and is intended to inform you of the investment products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s private banking business of JPMorgan Chase & Co.  The information is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service or as a recommendation of an investment manager. The investment products and services described herein may not be suitable for all clients.  Furthermore, please be advised that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.   Results may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. 
            In the United Kingdom, this material is approved by J.P. Morgan International Bank Limited  (JPMIB) with the registered office located at 125 London Wall  EC2Y 5AJ, registered in England No. 03838766 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.  In addition, this material may be distributed by:  JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB) Paris branch, which is regulated by the French banking authorities Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers; J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority; JPMCB Bahrain branch, licensed as a conventional wholesale bank by the Central Bank of Bahrain (for professional clients only); JPMCB Dubai branch, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority; JPMCB Hong Kong branch, regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; JPMCB Singapore branch, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. 
            This material is distributed with the understanding that J.P. Morgan is not rendering accounting, legal or tax advice. You should consult with your independent advisors concerning such matters. 
            IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of US tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding US tax-related penalties. 
            Each recipient of this presentation, and each agent thereof, may disclose to any person, without limitation, the US income and franchise tax treatment and tax structure of the transactions described herein and may disclose all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) provided to each recipient insofar as the materials relate to a US income or franchise tax strategy provided to such recipient by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries. 
            Should you have any questions regarding the information contained in this material or about J.P. Morgan products and services, please contact your J.P. Morgan private banking representative. Additional information is available upon request.  “J.P. Morgan” is the marketing name for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide.  This material may not be reproduced or circulated without J.P. Morgan’s authority. © 2012 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

            Source: ETFWorld – JP Morgan

            Normal 0 14 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

            Related Articles

            JPM – FX Weekly Update – EUR: No change now, no sign of a change tomorrow


            JPM – FX Weekly Update – Weekly Currency Thought: Gone Fishing


            JPM – FX Weekly Update – Focus remains on Central Banks for the USD and EUR