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Weekly Focus: Economic Situation

The greek party New Democracy (ND) topped the vote, taking 29.7% of the vote and 129 seats out of 300 in Parliament, compared with 26.9% and 71 seats for Syriza. Talks to form a coalition government will start today.…. 


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            The Greek drama will be with us for several more weeks to come, although we expect the new government will commit to a degree of further policy adjustment sufficient to keep the EU money flowing.

            Anxiety instead of rational risk assessment had a tight grip on markets last week. Renewed sovereign angst and contagion fears catapulted periphery yields to levels way too high given recent reform efforts and/or debt arithmetic in Spain and Italy.

            The few economic data releases had to take a backseat to anxiety again, nevertheless joining the queue of disappointing spring numbers that prompted us to revise down our 2012/13 GDP forecasts last week – not least because sovereign tensions will remain elevated for longer than previously envisaged.

            When FOMC members end their two-day meeting this Wednesday in Washington, they will most probably not announce further monetary stimuli measures. But as we point out in a second note, weaker US economic numbers coupled with intensified concerns about fiscal policy on both sides of the Atlantic have increased the risk of additional action – primarily an extension of “Operation Twist”.


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