Markets rallied massively last week, reflecting the post-OMT normalization process in asset allocation we have been talking about.....….
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In addition, economic data releases were promising again in the US and encouraging in China. The European newsflow was dominated by the just started EU summit – where we expect intense debates on anti-crisis policy, but no final decisions on (additional) help for Greece or Spain.
European data continued to show a large disconnection between hard numbers doing reasonably well and weak soft indicators. The remarkable resilience of industrial production in July-August poses upside risks to our 3Q12 GDP forecast of -0.3% qoq. As part of the current output strength may be reversed further down the road, some of the weakness originally projected for the summer quarter could be shifted to 4Q12.
This Thursday, UK 3Q GDP will be published. After contracting for three quarters in a row, economic activity is expected to have rebounded strongly to +0.6% qoq over the summer. But as the bulk of the uptick was driven by technical factors, 4Q12 real GDP growth will most likely fall back again to a very modest underlying trend path.
On Friday, the BEA will release its first estimate of 3Q US GDP growth. We stick to our above-consensus estimate of 2.2% as the reacceleration in private consumption more than offset the slowdown in business spending. Stronger momentum will continue this quarter as well, thus allowing the Fed to remain on the sidelines.
Also to be published starting end of the week, Swiss business barometers should continue to send conflicting signals, with the KOF index still robust, and the Industry PMI implying recession. But a detailed look at the important export sector shows that the business outlook has stabilized – despite the still strong franc.
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